Horses Fit to Lose

If you want to put your laying on a profitable level, you need to be in possesion of all the key facts.

Today, we are going to talk about fitness, how can you tell if a horse is fit ?

Well, some horses - especially on the all weather are out nearly every week, or so it seems - whilst others perform better at a certain time of year - you've probably heard trainers on TV saying things like "well, he's a spring horse" etc etc.

Now, when looking for horses to lay, I look for horses who either have not run in a fair while - 30+ days, or horses who are over-run, i.e keep running every few days, perhaps these are running up a winning sequence.

Now, in handicaps, horses that keep winning, tend to keep getting the weight piled on until they STOP WINNING.. yes you don't know, just because the horse has won twice on the trot - if it will lose today, it may knock up another 2 or 3 wins. but take a look:

Is the huge weight it's carrying today, for the distance it's going too much at TOO LOW a price today.
I'm amazed at just how many horses, who have won their last 2 or 3 starts are entered up in say a 3 mile chase carrying a huge weight, and are starting @ say 4/6 favourite - people are lumping on based
on what the horse has achieved on its last two starts..

It may never have won/run before on today's sticky ground

It may never have won/run before on today's distance

It may never have won/run before on today's track

Yes, @ 4/6 people go crazy as if defeat is IMPOSSIBLE... this plays right into the layers hands - the bookies love these sort of bets and will take money on them all day long, I know because I used
to be a bookmaker and in a year, you could probably buy a brand new Range Rover just by taking these bets alone.

Just before I recap, here is something you may or not know - horses that have run in the last 9 days or so are of particular DANGER to layers, possibly because they are either being run to defy a penalty (a future increase in weight) or the horse is running like a machine, these are especially dangerous when running in Handicap Sprints on the ALL WEATHER
And (AMAZINGLY SO) horses with triple digit runs, i.e 100+ days since a run pose a big danger, especially in handicap sprints if they have been rated highly - especially horses whose maximum past ratings
(using the Adrian Massey stats here)are quite superior to the horses rated today - sorry if that sounds gobbldegook but you need be a viewer of the Adrian Massey site to understand this.
Talking about Adrian Massey ratings - The excellent Adrian Massey site is free - you might want donate to
Adrian's favourite charity to get ALL THE CARDS each day. Drop him an email about his current policy on this. Adrian Massey