Monday, 17 May 2010

Monday 17th May Evening Update

Good Evening

Well, not a great start to our week. Flouncing was 3rd @ 9/2 but was well over our guide price,
which was a shame as I took 3.85 this morning. Now I know some of you were probably on it anyway
but i have a tip you may want to try.

When I work on these horses in the morning, I obviously take into account it's chances of winning
as opposed to it's price on offer, now with Flouncing, in my view this was 3/1 chance, however when she
started drifting out beyond this price, we are no longer at an advantage because if she wins (drifters often do)
the price starts to become value to the backers.

Now I was asked the other day, "so what if it drifts out beyond the recommended price as long as we aren't
on past 3/1 (4.0), it shouldn't matter - this is true in many repects except the amount that do go on to win after a seismic drift. I do the following, I BUY it back in with part of the stake in a case like this so I CAN'T LOSE...

In this case 60% of the lay stake as a WIN bet would break you even whatever happend, leaving 40%
of the stake as a profit whatever happened.

I hope I haven't baffled anyone here, but if you need further explaination, let me know

keitheverett@nltworld.com

Our other lay - Feathered Crown won @ 15/8 (3.0), so depending what you did today, you were either
2.0 points down or 1.05 points down.

Worst ways we are still 9.8 points UP on the Month and we have plenty of time to go to get to INCREASE
this before the end of the month.

If you are not a Magnum member yet - confidence has never been so high in the Magnum camp
and I fully expect this year to turn into our BEST yet......

Have a good night

See you tomorrow, where we can do it all again..

Keith

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